IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.5	#114
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.5	#137
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.3	#176

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.8	#63

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	30.8%	41.3%	26.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.4%	3.2%	0.8%
Average Seed	13.2	12.5	13.7

.500 or above	85.5%	95.9%	81.2%
.500 or above in Conference	93.8%	97.2%	92.4%
Conference Champion	35.9%	45.9%	31.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%

First Four	1.9%	1.5%	2.1%
First Round	29.8%	40.3%	25.5%
Second Round	5.8%	10.2%	3.9%
Sweet Sixteen	1.6%	2.6%	1.2%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Final Four	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.6	0.1 - 1.6
Quad 1b	0.4 - 1.6	0.6 - 3.1
Quad 2	1.5 - 2.6	2.0 - 5.8
Quad 3	4.7 - 3.1	6.7 - 8.9
Quad 4	11.9 - 1.5	18.6 - 10.4

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	79	@ South Dakota St.	L	74-77	29%
Nov 10, 2018	351	Delaware St.	W	77-57	99%
Nov 12, 2018	289	Jacksonville	W	76-66	88%
Nov 16, 2018	286	Arkansas St.	W	78-68	89%
Nov 22, 2018	52	Seton Hall	L	70-76	29%
Nov 23, 2018	87	Utah	L	66-68	42%
Nov 25, 2018	166	La Salle	W	74-70	63%
Dec 01, 2018	95	Boise St.	L	69-71	55%
Dec 09, 2018	7	Nevada	L	69-82	13%
Dec 15, 2018	26	@ Texas	L	62-71	16%
Dec 19, 2018	116	@ Northern Iowa	W	64-63	39%
Dec 22, 2018	344	Mississippi Valley	W	80-62	96%
Dec 29, 2018	121	@ San Diego	W	69-68	41%
Jan 03, 2019	152	Utah Valley	W	72-69	69%
Jan 05, 2019	244	Seattle	W	73-65	83%
Jan 10, 2019	93	@ New Mexico St.	L	68-70	36%
Jan 12, 2019	311	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	82-70	78%
Jan 17, 2019	350	Chicago St.	W	84-64	97%
Jan 19, 2019	279	UMKC	W	76-66	85%
Jan 26, 2019	288	@ California Baptist	W	75-65	72%
Feb 02, 2019	204	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-63	60%
Feb 07, 2019	311	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	82-70	90%
Feb 09, 2019	93	New Mexico St.	L	68-70	54%
Feb 14, 2019	279	@ UMKC	W	76-66	71%
Feb 16, 2019	350	@ Chicago St.	W	84-64	92%
Feb 21, 2019	288	California Baptist	W	75-65	87%
Mar 02, 2019	204	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-63	76%
Mar 07, 2019	152	@ Utah Valley	W	72-69	49%
Mar 09, 2019	244	@ Seattle	W	73-65	67%
Projected Record						18.6 - 10.4	11.7 - 4.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.0	0.7	3.6	8.4	11.5	8.4	3.4		35.9	1st
2nd										0.2	1.6	6.4	9.5	6.8	2.1				26.5	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.3	2.2	5.5	6.1	2.5	0.2					16.9	3rd
4th								0.3	1.7	4.1	3.1	0.8	0.0						9.9	4th
5th						0.0	0.2	1.3	2.5	1.4	0.2								5.6	5th
6th					0.0	0.2	0.8	1.4	0.6	0.1									3.1	6th
7th				0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0										1.4	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0											0.7	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													0.0	9th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.6	3.1	5.1	8.0	10.4	13.9	15.7	15.4	13.6	8.4	3.4			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	3.4		3.4
15-1	100.0%	8.4		7.7	0.7
14-2	84.8%	11.5		8.2	3.3	0.0
13-3	54.4%	8.4		4.4	3.2	0.7	0.0
12-4	23.1%	3.6		1.2	1.8	0.6	0.1
11-5	4.8%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.1%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	35.9%	35.9		25.0	9.2	1.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	3.4%		76.4%	68.6%	7.8%	10.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.8		24.8%
15-1	8.4%		67.2%	63.0%	4.3%	11.9				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	1.1	1.4	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0	2.7		11.5%
14-2	13.6%		49.8%	47.8%	2.0%	13.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.6	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.1	6.8		3.9%
13-3	15.4%		39.5%	39.1%	0.4%	13.6											0.0	0.1	0.9	1.6	1.8	1.4	0.2	9.3		0.7%
12-4	15.7%		29.3%	29.2%	0.1%	14.1											0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.3	1.5	0.4	11.1		0.1%
11-5	13.9%		19.2%	19.2%		14.8												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.0	0.8	11.2
10-6	10.4%		14.1%	14.1%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.7	8.9
9-7	8.0%		8.4%	8.4%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	7.4
8-8	5.1%		4.6%	4.6%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.2	4.9
7-9	3.1%		3.8%	3.8%		17.7														0.0		0.0	0.1	3.0
6-10	1.6%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
5-11	1.0%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.0	1.0
4-12	0.4%																							0.4
3-13	0.1%																							0.1
2-14	0.0%																							0.0
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16

Total	100%		30.8%	29.9%	1.0%	13.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.6	2.3	4.9	6.9	6.2	5.3	3.1	69.2		1.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.1		64.0	1.2		32.6	2.3